aeromaps.models.air_transport.air_traffic.price_elasticity_logistic_income

price_elasticity_logistic_income

Module for computing air traffic (RPK) with a generalised logistic income trend adjusted for price effects.

Adapted from the original (hard-coded short/medium/long range) model so it works with the generic market structure: the global per-capita demand is unchanged, only the per-segment split now iterates over the registry's passenger markets. Selected via global.demand.model: logistic_income in markets.yaml.

RPKLogisticIncomePriceElasticity

RPKLogisticIncomePriceElasticity(name, passenger_market_ids, *args, **kwargs)

Bases: AeroMAPSModel

Compute Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK) per capita using a generalised logistic function of GDP per capita (income trend), adjusted for price effects via a price index.

The global per-capita demand is split across the registry's passenger markets by <mid>_rpk_share_last_historical_year and multiplied by each market's rpk_<mid>_measures_impact. It reads doc_net_energy_per_rpk_mean to close the cost <-> demand MDA cycle and aggregates the per-market reference trajectories into the total rpk_reference.

Unlike the traffic/efficiency models (one discipline instance per market), this is a single discipline spanning all passenger markets: the income trend and the price <-> demand MDA coupling are global, so per-market instances would duplicate the same global cycle N times.

Parameters:

Name	Type	Description	Default
name	str	Discipline name.	required
passenger_market_ids	list of str	Ordered list of passenger market ids.	required

Source code in aeromaps/models/air_transport/air_traffic/price_elasticity_logistic_income.py

def __init__(self, name: str, passenger_market_ids: list, *args, **kwargs):
    super().__init__(name=name, model_type="custom", *args, **kwargs)
    self.passenger_market_ids = list(passenger_market_ids)
    # Calibrated logistic parameters (fixed at class level)
    self.left_asymptote: float = 0.0
    self.capacity: float = 10567.171437822739
    self.growth_rate: float = 0.00011537900000000001
    self.logistic_nu: float = 0.168484473
    self.asymptote_coeff: float = 1.148428926
    self.x_lag: float = 0.0
    self.price_elast: float = -0.34504782729982275
    # Reference all-energy cost per RPK from calibration [USD/RPK]
    self.price_ref: float = 0.00947670537084349
    # Calibrated price-response delay (first-order lag time constant) [yr]; 0.0 disables it.
    self.price_delay: float = 1.2562195408290782
    # Exchange rate used to convert price_ref from USD to EUR [EUR/USD]
    self.eur_usd_exchange_rate: float = 0.9

    self.input_names = {
        "rpk_init": pd.Series([0.0]),
        "population": pd.Series([0.0]),
        "gdp_per_capita": pd.Series([0.0]),
        "doc_net_energy_per_rpk_mean": pd.Series([0.0]),
        "gdp_per_capita_last_historical_year": 0.0,
        "gdp_per_capita_covid_end": 0.0,
        "covid_end_year_passenger": 0.0,
        "gdp_per_capita_init": pd.Series([0.0]),
        "population_init": pd.Series([0.0]),
    }
    for mid in self.passenger_market_ids:
        self.input_names[f"{mid}_rpk_share_last_historical_year"] = 0.0
        self.input_names[f"rpk_{mid}_measures_impact"] = pd.Series([0.0])
        self.input_names[f"rpk_reference_{mid}"] = pd.Series([0.0])

    self.output_names = {
        "rpk": pd.Series([0.0]),
        "rpk_no_elasticity": pd.Series([0.0]),
        "rpk_per_capita": pd.Series([0.0]),
        "rpk_per_capita_trend": pd.Series([0.0]),
        "price_index": pd.Series([0.0]),
        "doc_net_energy_per_rpk_delayed": pd.Series([0.0]),
        "rpk_model_without_covid": pd.Series([0.0]),
        "annual_growth_rate_passenger": pd.Series([0.0]),
        "cagr_rpk": 0.0,
        "prospective_evolution_rpk": 0.0,
        "rpk_reference": pd.Series([0.0]),
        "reference_annual_growth_rate_passenger": pd.Series([0.0]),
    }
    for mid in self.passenger_market_ids:
        self.output_names[f"rpk_{mid}"] = pd.Series([0.0])
        self.output_names[f"annual_growth_rate_rpk_{mid}"] = pd.Series([0.0])
        self.output_names[f"cagr_rpk_{mid}"] = 0.0
        self.output_names[f"prospective_evolution_rpk_{mid}"] = 0.0

compute

compute(input_data)

Compute prospective RPK using a generalised logistic income trend adjusted for price.

The global per-capita income trend is multiplied by the price index; the result is split across passenger markets by their last-historical-year RPK share, multiplied by each market's measures impact and summed into the total rpk. Historic years are pinned to the exogenous rpk_init split.

Source code in aeromaps/models/air_transport/air_traffic/price_elasticity_logistic_income.py

def compute(self, input_data: dict) -> dict:
    """Compute prospective RPK using a generalised logistic income trend adjusted for price.

    The global per-capita income trend is multiplied by the price index; the result is
    split across passenger markets by their last-historical-year RPK share, multiplied
    by each market's measures impact and summed into the total ``rpk``. Historic years
    are pinned to the exogenous ``rpk_init`` split.
    """
    rpk_init = input_data["rpk_init"]
    population = input_data["population"]
    gdp_per_capita = input_data["gdp_per_capita"]
    doc_net_energy_per_rpk_mean = input_data["doc_net_energy_per_rpk_mean"]
    gdp_per_capita_last_historical_year = float(
        input_data["gdp_per_capita_last_historical_year"]
    )
    gdp_per_capita_covid_end = float(input_data["gdp_per_capita_covid_end"])
    gdp_per_capita_init = input_data["gdp_per_capita_init"]
    population_init = input_data["population_init"]

    price_ref_eur = self.price_ref * self.eur_usd_exchange_rate
    covid_end_year = int(input_data["covid_end_year_passenger"])
    # When the prospective window starts after COVID (prospection_start_year >
    # covid_end_year), the GDP series already reflects the post-COVID level, so
    # re-applying covid_shift would double-count the COVID dampening.
    if self.prospection_start_year > covid_end_year:
        covid_shift = 0.0
    else:
        covid_shift = gdp_per_capita_covid_end - gdp_per_capita_last_historical_year
    hist_slice = slice(self.historic_start_year, self.prospection_start_year - 1)

    # --- Logistic trends ---
    rpk_per_capita_trend = generalised_logistic_function(
        x=gdp_per_capita,
        left_asymptote=self.left_asymptote,
        capacity=self.capacity,
        growth_rate=self.growth_rate,
        logistic_nu=self.logistic_nu,
        asymptote_coeff=self.asymptote_coeff,
        x_lag=self.x_lag + covid_shift,
    )
    rpk_per_capita_trend_no_covid = generalised_logistic_function(
        x=gdp_per_capita,
        left_asymptote=self.left_asymptote,
        capacity=self.capacity,
        growth_rate=self.growth_rate,
        logistic_nu=self.logistic_nu,
        asymptote_coeff=self.asymptote_coeff,
        x_lag=self.x_lag,
    )
    rpk_per_capita_trend_hist = generalised_logistic_function(
        x=gdp_per_capita_init,
        left_asymptote=self.left_asymptote,
        capacity=self.capacity,
        growth_rate=self.growth_rate,
        logistic_nu=self.logistic_nu,
        asymptote_coeff=self.asymptote_coeff,
        x_lag=self.x_lag,
    )

    doc_net_energy_per_rpk_delayed = self._apply_price_delay(doc_net_energy_per_rpk_mean)
    price_index = (doc_net_energy_per_rpk_delayed / price_ref_eur) ** self.price_elast
    rpk_per_capita = rpk_per_capita_trend * price_index

    # --- Total RPK (model, no measures yet) ---
    rpk_model_total = population * rpk_per_capita
    # RPK without price elasticity (logistic trend only)
    rpk_no_price_total = population * rpk_per_capita_trend

    # --- Build rpk_model_without_covid (historic from gdp_init/pop_init, no price adj.) ---
    rpk_model_without_covid_raw = population * (rpk_per_capita_trend_no_covid * price_index)
    rpk_model_without_covid_raw.loc[hist_slice] = (
        population_init * rpk_per_capita_trend_hist
    ).loc[hist_slice]

    # --- Per-market split (historic uses rpk_init * share), measures, and totals ---
    n = self.end_year - self.prospection_start_year
    base_year = self.prospection_start_year - 1
    output_data = {}
    rpk = pd.Series(0.0, index=self.df.index)
    rpk_reference = pd.Series(0.0, index=self.df.index)
    # Sum of share_m * measures_m: aggregate-only outputs are rebuilt from this
    # single weighting after the loop instead of being recomputed per market.
    weighted_measures = pd.Series(0.0, index=self.df.index)

    for mid in self.passenger_market_ids:
        share = float(input_data[f"{mid}_rpk_share_last_historical_year"]) / 100
        measures_impact = self._full_series(input_data[f"rpk_{mid}_measures_impact"], 1.0)
        weighted_measures += share * measures_impact

        rpk_m = rpk_model_total * share
        rpk_m.loc[hist_slice] = rpk_init.loc[hist_slice] * share
        rpk_m = rpk_m * measures_impact

        rpk += rpk_m
        rpk_reference += self._full_series(input_data[f"rpk_reference_{mid}"], 0.0)

        output_data[f"rpk_{mid}"] = rpk_m
        output_data[f"annual_growth_rate_rpk_{mid}"] = rpk_m.pct_change() * 100
        output_data[f"cagr_rpk_{mid}"] = 100 * (
            (rpk_m.loc[self.end_year] / rpk_m.loc[base_year]) ** (1 / n) - 1
        )
        output_data[f"prospective_evolution_rpk_{mid}"] = 100 * (
            rpk_m.loc[self.end_year] / rpk_m.loc[base_year] - 1
        )

    # --- Aggregate-only series (no per-market output), built once from the weighting ---
    rpk_no_elasticity = rpk_no_price_total.copy()
    rpk_no_elasticity.loc[hist_slice] = rpk_init.loc[hist_slice]
    rpk_no_elasticity = rpk_no_elasticity * weighted_measures
    rpk_model_without_covid = rpk_model_without_covid_raw * weighted_measures

    # --- Totals ---
    reference_growth = pd.Series(float("nan"), index=self.df.index)
    proj = slice(self.prospection_start_year + 1, self.end_year)
    reference_growth.loc[proj] = (rpk_reference.pct_change() * 100).loc[proj]

    output_data["rpk"] = rpk
    output_data["rpk_no_elasticity"] = rpk_no_elasticity
    output_data["rpk_per_capita"] = rpk_per_capita
    output_data["rpk_per_capita_trend"] = rpk_per_capita_trend
    output_data["price_index"] = price_index
    output_data["rpk_model_without_covid"] = rpk_model_without_covid
    output_data["rpk_reference"] = rpk_reference
    output_data["doc_net_energy_per_rpk_delayed"] = doc_net_energy_per_rpk_delayed
    output_data["annual_growth_rate_passenger"] = rpk.pct_change() * 100
    output_data["reference_annual_growth_rate_passenger"] = reference_growth
    output_data["cagr_rpk"] = 100 * (
        (rpk.loc[self.end_year] / rpk.loc[base_year]) ** (1 / n) - 1
    )
    output_data["prospective_evolution_rpk"] = 100 * (
        rpk.loc[self.end_year] / rpk.loc[base_year] - 1
    )

    self._store_outputs(output_data)
    return output_data